Although in the second quarter of this year the value of housing loans newly granted by banks was the lowest for over two years (since 2010 Q1), there are many indications that the worst housing loan market is behind us.
The demand for loans is increasing
Which is shown by the increase in their number and what is signaled by banks. The percentage of institutions tightening their housing loan policy is falling, and the drop in transaction prices of flats to the lowest level from 2007 Q2-Q2 indicates that the room for their further downward movement is already very, but very limited.
In published on August 28 this year. by the Polish Bank Association, and the nationwide report prepared by the AMRON Center on housing loans and real estate transaction prices, it was emphasized that in the second quarter of this year the value of newly granted housing loans decreased for the fourth time in a row and amounted to PLN 10,044 billion. Thus, it was the lowest since the first quarter of 2010, when it was equal to PLN 9.81 billion and 25% lower than that recorded in the same period last year, when it amounted to PLN 13.395 billion.
The study also shows
That in April-June average transaction prices per square meter of apartments in the cities covered by the report (Warsaw, Białystok,, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Kraków, Poznań, Łódź, the Katowice agglomeration) once again fell in quarter-on-quarter terms, this time on a scale of 0.68% (Łódź) to 3.28% (Białystok). As a result of this downward movement, real estate transaction prices in almost all of these locations were at their lowest level from Q1-Q2 2007, and the exception was only Gdańsk, where prices are the lowest not since that period, and since 2009 Q2
The report also emphasized that in the second quarter the share of loans in PLN in the value of all newly granted housing loans amounted to nearly 95%, to 94.61% to be exact. Thus, it was higher by 10.41 percentage points. than in the first quarter of this year. and higher by 16.21 percentage points from that recorded in 2011 Q2. At the same time, the share of loans in euros fell quarterly by 9.46 percentage points. to 5.19%, and the share of loans in Swiss francs decreased to only 0.12% from 1.06%.
It should be better
Although the authors’ commentary of the latest Amron-Sarfin report beats a lot of pessimism (“the results of lending in the second quarter of 2012 … are a very serious warning signal about the bad situation on the housing financing market”, “from today’s perspective it seems that the fall in prices ( transactional flats) will continue, although at a slower pace than in the first half of the year, at least until next autumn ‘), it seems that it is not entirely justified.